Traditional weather forecasting
Weather
and climate are the processes and phenomena in the atmosphere which is
one of the most important and influential factor on the various
activities of life. Attention to the importance of weather and climate
information emerging after natural disasters such as floods and
droughts, forest fires and smoke pollution in the year - recent years
more and more frequent.
Farmers often suffer losses due to crop
failure due to drought or flooding. As in the District of filigree,
there were approximately 13 thousand hectares of land have puso and
failed harvests caused by drought and about 25 thousand hectares of crop
failure due to flooding (Kompas, February 22, 2004).
On the other hand, recently there was also
water reservoirs often experience shrinkage, resulting in the need for
electricity and water requirements for irrigating rice fields is
somewhat impeded. The issue is why this incident recurring, without any
effort to study the phenomena (data) of the past. One effort to overcome
this is to improve water management are highly dependent on rainfall
conditions (climate).
This natural phenomenon above is difficult
to be controlled and modified, except in a small scale. Climate
phenomena can be optimized so that the information about opportunities
in particular climatic conditions of extreme climate events (droughts
and floods) and forecasting (prediction) climatic conditions that will
come to know as early as possible. This effort aims to avoid or minimize
the impacts of climate extremes.
Weather and climate forecasting activity
has existed since the Hindu kingdom, especially in Java is a "pranata
mangsa", which is often called the traditional forecasts. Farmers use a
natural phenomenon signs or symptoms are often called nature in
forecasting when the rainy season began, when the rainy season stops.
Drought can be known by the indicators pranata mangsa. Gadung growth of
stem tuber (Dioscorea hispide Dennst) as an example, an indicator of
less than 50 days ahead of the rainy season began. Berbunyinya katydid
(Tibicen Sp) is an indicator of the dry season is near. Society of South
Sulawesi and South Lombok also has an indicator of drought.
Unfortunately the use of pranata mangsa are now starting to be abandoned
by farmers.
Pranata mangsa is the traditional way the
Java community in predicting weather and climate has been used since,
based on natural events, so this way the user must "remember" (in the
Java language: titen), when to plant and harvest. Traditional prediction
accuracy rate is often a bias current, along with the loss of some
natural indicators due to the destruction of nature. The use of
traditional methods began to be abandoned by society. Some people still
use this method only as a horoscope and feel of "occult" is more
dominant.
Traditional weather prediction and climate
For thousands of years they have memorized
the pattern of the seasons, climate and other natural phenomena,
eventually our ancestors make yearly calendar is not based on the
calendar Syamsiah (AD) or Komariah calendar (Hijra / Islam) but based on
the natural events such as the rainy season, dry season flowering, and
the location of stars in the universe, as well as the influence of a
full moon on the ebb and flow of sea water.
Javanese and Balinese society called
Pranata mangsa (Sunda), Pranoto Mongso (Java) and Kerta Period (Bali).
Pranata mangsa is required at the time as a benchmark when determining
or will do any work. For example farm implement such as farming or
fishing as a fisherman, might as well go abroad to fight. So that they
can reduce risk and prevent the high production costs.
"Pranata mangsa" comes from the Javanese,
"pranata" which means the procedure or procedures, while the "mangsa"
means the season. In the kingdom of Mataram, Sultan Agung created by
converting the Javanese calendar year calculation system is based on the
circulation of false Saka sun to the earth with the circulation of the
moon to the earth, as in AH, but the numbers continue to figures from
Saka year. Sultan Agung successfully integrate the Islamic calendar
calculation methods and Java (Hindu). Java Calendar contains pawukon and
pranata mangsa.
Pawukon regarding disposition of man, the
good days to trade, business,-law (wedding day), boyongan (moving
house), when to do penance also days of abstinence or Walang Sanger,
taliwangke, samparwangke, sarik great, dhendhan kukudan, and other so
on. Used to determine the order of mangsa begin tandur (rice),
harvesting rice, and planting crops.
Pranata mangsa include the division season
(mangsa) and the number of days, activity (activities) farmer, traits -
traits that appear (natural signs) in each of the mangsa. In a cycle of
365 days divided into twelve seasons (seasons) or in the Java language
"mangsa" with a long day different, Kasa (unity): 41 days (June
23-August 2), Karo (second): 23 days (3 August-26 August), until the
season Sada (twelve): 41 days (May 14-June 22) (third circle).
Picture of Pranata mangsa
Twelfth season then classified into four
general season (first circle) is the dry season (88 days), harbor (first
shift: 95 days), rainy (94/95 days), and mareng season (second shift:
88 days). Activities of farmers (second circle) for each mangsa rotates
counter-clockwise direction starting with the first mangsa / gauze with
the activity of planting crops in the fields, the second month / karo
growth of crops to fall mangsa to the twelfth / Sadha with the activity
of the rice harvest rice and paddy fields. In addition to the activities
of farmers, pranata mangsa also provide traits or natural phenomenon
that occurs for each mangsa, ie mangsa first (June 22-August 2), a
natural phenomenon that happens is the wind from the northeast to the
southwest, high temperature, smaller springs, autumn leaves and bare
trees, grasshoppers and insects lay their eggs.
By order of mangsa farmers can plan when to
start planting and reaping the rewards, such as planting rice in paddy
fields can be performed on mangsa kapitu Kanem and the fall on November
10th - February 3rd. On mangsa that is characterized by winds from west
to east, tight, wet weather, cold, lots of rain, rambutan, durian,
mangosteen began to cook, especially in Kanem mangsa, mangsa kapitu are
characterized by winds from the west, the weather is wet, cold and
rainy, frequent floods, bird foraging difficult. Rice harvest is
expected to fall on mangsa kasapuluh, dhestal and Sadha. Natural
phenomenon that happens is the wind blowing from the southeast, and
remain strong, a little rain, birds make nests, hot temperatures,
bulbous plants and birds incubate aging.
Pranata mangsa include mangsa (season),
dina tumapaking mangsa (days to start the season), day length, and
features - features the season (candraning mangsa).
Pranata Mangsa during the year:
- Kasa (Kahiji) June 22/23 - 2 / 3 August. Planting season crops.
- Karo (Kadua) 2 / 3 August - 25/26 August. Planting season crops germinate give up both.
- Katiga (Katilu) in August 25/26 - 18/19 September. Season potatoes sprout, harvest crops.
- Kapat (Kaopat) September 18/19 - 13/14 October. Wells dry season, kapok fruit, planting bananas.
- Kalima (Kalima), 13/14 October - 9 / 10 November. Rainy season, the trees sprout acid, turmeric leaf, young trees.
- Kanem (Kagenep) 9 / 10 November - 22/23 December. Season fruits are getting old, began working the fields.
- Kapitu (Katujuh) December 22/23 - 3 / 4 February. Season floods, storms, landslides, began tandur.
- Kawolu (Kadalapan) 2 / 3 February. Season the rice to rest, many caterpillars, many of diseases.
- Kasonga (Kasalapan) 1 / 2 March - 26/27 March. Paddy flowering season, turaes (countryman insects) rang busy.
- Kadasa (Kasapuluh) March 26/27 -19/20 April. Season rice contains but still green, the birds make nests, planting crops on dry land.
- Desta (Kasabelas) April 19/20 - 12/13 May There is still time for crops, the birds feeding their children.
- Sada (Kaduabelas) 121/13 22/23 April-June. Stacking hay season, the signs of cold air in the morning.
Traditional weather prediction and climate is local, such as the order of prey only applies to people on the island of Java. Similarly with other traditional means such as Palontara to society Sulawesi, Kala on Sunda, Porhalaan in Batak, Wariga in Bali. Forecast system it is generally still used traditional dryland farmers (rainfed), the success of the plant is largely determined by rainfall. Currently, the use of the traditional way, especially some institutions prey Java community so many have forgotten and do not use anymore.
In the midst of rapid environmental degradation
and land switch function, a natural phenomenon which is very useful for
farmers began to trouble used as a benchmark. As an illustration of this
now, just hours of 21:00 was just cock crowed, but was usually the
first rooster crow about at 00.00. Consequently, although the order of
prey is still used, but often biased and less adaptive, given the
indicator go missing, along with environmental degradation, the impact
of greenhouse gases, and global hot.
Modern Weather Prediction
Utilization of weather forecasting models
with a new modern technique has accuracy about 70%, while for climate
forecasting (season) is still below 50%. In addition, because it is
still common and macro level, the model forecasts has yet to be utilized
for areas more specific such as agriculture, fisheries, prevention of
catastrophic forest fires, floods or drought. This needs to be
understood the limitations of climate forecasting models in a modern
way, because the models are still produced today comes from the
meteorologists in the hemisphere subtropics, so we need a validation for
the application in the tropics. In addition, the data required in the
design of climate forecasting models are often not available and human
resources to penggembangan model is still very limited.
There
are limitations to the two ways mentioned above, the development
efforts of the weather and climate forecasting models need to be done,
especially in a modern way. Efforts include the development of models
forecasting techniques, design models, and human resources. Another
effort is to integrate the traditional way (local) and how modern
(global) in predicting weather and climate, so that it can increase the
level of accuracy.
